Monday, August 23, 2010

Cut Oil Consumption In Half By 2030

The Union of Concerned Scientists, smart folks, have devised a plan that cuts U.S. oil consumption in half by 2030. This is a big deal.

They project we will consume over 25 million barrels a day in 2030.

Their plan saves 13.9 million barrels of oil per day.

So, let's say our import vs. domestic production ratio stays the same: 60/40

That means, with business as usual we will import 25 x 60%, or 15 million barrels a day.

And let's stipulate that the price of oil stays flat, which it won't, but we'll assume here that it does, at $80.

So, in 2030, with business a usual, we will spend $1.2 billion per day on imported oil.

If we cut consumption by 13.9 million barrels a day and keep the import ratio the same, we spend $533 million per day on imports, a savings of $667 million per day.

Or, $20 billion per month, or $244 billion per year. Saved in imports only.

We would also save $445 million per day on domestic production, or $13 billion per month, or $162 billion per year.

2030 Cost per barrel: $80

Barrels / day(x1M)

Business As Usual 25

Projected UCS Savings -13.9

Revised Consumption 11.1

Barrels / day(x1M) Cost / Day Cost / Month Cost / Year
15 $1,200,000,000 $36,000,000,000 $438,000,000,000
-8.34 ($667,200,000) ($20,016,000,000) ($243,528,000,000)
6.66 $532,800,000 $15,984,000,000 $194,472,000,000

Barrels / day(x1M) Cost / Day Cost / Month Cost / Year
10 $800,000,000 $24,000,000,000 $292,000,000,000
-5.56 ($444,800,000) ($13,344,000,000) ($162,352,000,000)
4.44 $355,200,000 $10,656,000,000 $129,648,000,000

And these are conservative estimates.

In reality, oil will surely be over $80 per barrel by 2030 -- by a lot. It hit $140 in June 2008.

Think about that: we create a bunch of jobs building the new infrastructure and vehicles required for this plan to work, and we pay for it with the $33 billion a month we save -- OK, we won't get the $33 billion a month up front, we have to do the work first, and it will come incrementally, but our investments will pay for themselves, and the savings will continue forever...let's repeat that, at least $33 billion a month (at $80 per barrel) saved, forever.

Can you think of something better we could do with $33 billion a month than give it to oil companies and other countries? I can. Education comes to mind...for our representatives who got us in this mess, and the people who voted for 'em. All those domestic jobs would be nice, too. And no more oil spills...ah, I'm just dreamin'.

See the plan at the UCS site: National Oil Savings Plan
and then sign the petition.

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